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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 6: Kingsdown Stallions v University of Bath 5 (Wed 15 Mar 2017)Match played between Owen Sanders (home) and Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth (away).Match won by Owen Sanders. Result: 9-6,9-1,9-7:9-3,9-0,10-8:6-9,2-9,9-3,9-4,8-10:6-9,6-9,9-7,2-9:9-0,9-4,9-1. Starting level for Owen Sanders: 1,393, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 769, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Owen Sanders to win as he is currently playing 81% better than Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth. Owen Sanders won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Owen Sanders played 46% better than Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth in this match. In this case, Owen Sanders played at level 1,189 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Owen Sanders would normally have been playing at level 1,263 (based on typical behaviour), Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.2%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Owen Sanders changes to 0% and Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth changes to +4.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Owen Sanders becomes 0% and for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth becomes +3.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Owen Sanders is 0% and for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth is +2.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Owen Sanders: 87%, Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Owen Sanders: 78%, Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 78%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Owen Sanders: 1,391, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Finlay 'Red Light' Kenneth: 790, level confidence: 78%. Notes
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