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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Lansdown A v Kingsdown (Thu 02 Mar 2017)Match played between Carolyn Chennells (home) and Mandy Lewis (away).Match won by Carolyn Chennells. Result: 9-2,9-4,9-2:10-8,9-0,9-1:9-0,9-2,9-2:9-2,9-2,9-1:9-1,9-0,9-0. Starting level for Carolyn Chennells: 1,093, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Mandy Lewis: 493, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Carolyn Chennells to win as she is currently playing 122% better than Mandy Lewis. Carolyn Chennells won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carolyn Chennells played 86% better than Mandy Lewis in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Carolyn Chennells was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 755 and 1,093 without affecting her level. In this case, Carolyn Chennells played at level 922 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Carolyn Chennells would normally have been playing at level 927 (based on typical behaviour), Mandy Lewis played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carolyn Chennells changes to 0% and Mandy Lewis changes to +0.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carolyn Chennells becomes 0% and for Mandy Lewis becomes +0.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Carolyn Chennells is 0% and for Mandy Lewis is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carolyn Chennells: 89%, Mandy Lewis: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carolyn Chennells: 81%, Mandy Lewis: 80%. A final adjustment of +2.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Carolyn Chennells: 1,147, level confidence: 81%. Final level for Mandy Lewis: 497, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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