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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Panthers v Weston (Thu 02 Mar 2017)Match played between Claire Kedward (home) and Alicia Venables (away).Match won by Claire Kedward. Result: 9-0,9-1,9-6:1-9,10-8,9-3,3-9,7-9:9-2,9-7,5-9,6-9,9-2:3-9,3-9,2-9:9-4,9-7,4-9,9-6. Starting level for Claire Kedward: 1,345, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Alicia Venables: 558, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Claire Kedward to win as she is currently playing 141% better than Alicia Venables. Claire Kedward won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Claire Kedward played 97% better than Alicia Venables in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Claire Kedward was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 871 and 1,345 without affecting her level. In this case, Claire Kedward played at level 1,104 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Claire Kedward would normally have been playing at level 1,109 (based on typical behaviour), Alicia Venables played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Claire Kedward changes to 0% and Alicia Venables changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Claire Kedward becomes 0% and for Alicia Venables becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Claire Kedward is 0% and for Alicia Venables is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Claire Kedward: 83%, Alicia Venables: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Claire Kedward: 75%, Alicia Venables: 79%. A final adjustment of -3.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Claire Kedward: 1,263, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Alicia Venables: 557, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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