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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Lynx v Redland Winter Panthers (Thu 16 Mar 2017)Match played between Ruth Drysdale (home) and Karen Campbell (away).Match won by Ruth Drysdale. Result: 9-5,9-0,9-5. Starting level for Ruth Drysdale: 537, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Karen Campbell: 220, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Ruth Drysdale to win as she is currently playing 144% better than Karen Campbell. Ruth Drysdale won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ruth Drysdale played 67% better than Karen Campbell in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ruth Drysdale was taking it easy by anything up to 18%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 344 and 537 without affecting her level. In this case, Ruth Drysdale played at level 402 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ruth Drysdale would normally have been playing at level 441 (based on typical behaviour), Karen Campbell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale changes to 0% and Karen Campbell changes to +5.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale becomes 0% and for Karen Campbell becomes +4.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Ruth Drysdale is 0% and for Karen Campbell is +3.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ruth Drysdale: 81%, Karen Campbell: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ruth Drysdale: 67%, Karen Campbell: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ruth Drysdale: 532, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Karen Campbell: 226, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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