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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Redland Winter Jaguars v Lansdown A (Thu 23 Feb 2017)Match played between Claire Packwood (home) and Hannah Scott (away).Match won by Hannah Scott. Result: 5-9,2-9,7-9. Starting level for Claire Packwood: 292, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Hannah Scott: 567, level confidence: 59%. Hannah Scott to win as she is currently playing 94% better than Claire Packwood. Hannah Scott won all of the games and 66% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 41% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hannah Scott played 46% better than Claire Packwood in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Hannah Scott was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 432 and 567 without affecting her level. As Hannah Scott has played below her allowed range at 429, her level reduction is 0.8% before damping. On the assumption that Hannah Scott would normally have been playing at level 502 (based on typical behaviour), Claire Packwood played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.7%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.6% and 6.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hannah Scott changes to -0.6% and Claire Packwood changes to +4.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hannah Scott becomes -0.6% and for Claire Packwood becomes +3.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Hannah Scott is -0.4% and for Claire Packwood is +2.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hannah Scott: 77%, Claire Packwood: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hannah Scott: 66%, Claire Packwood: 75%. A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Claire Packwood: 304, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Hannah Scott: 559, level confidence: 66%. Notes
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