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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: David Lloyd A v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 26 Jan 2017)Match played between Tina Anderson (home) and Alisha Bhanot (away).Match won by Alisha Bhanot. Result: 3-9,2-9,1-9. Starting level for Tina Anderson: 238, level confidence: 47%. Starting level for Alisha Bhanot: 890, level confidence: 61%. Alisha Bhanot to win as she is currently playing 274% better than Tina Anderson. Alisha Bhanot won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alisha Bhanot played 118% better than Tina Anderson in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alisha Bhanot was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 374 and 890 without affecting her level. In this case, Alisha Bhanot played at level 560 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alisha Bhanot would normally have been playing at level 605 (based on typical behaviour), Tina Anderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot changes to 0% and Tina Anderson changes to +4.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot becomes 0% and for Tina Anderson becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot is 0% and for Tina Anderson is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alisha Bhanot: 78%, Tina Anderson: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alisha Bhanot: 60%, Tina Anderson: 53%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tina Anderson: 243, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Alisha Bhanot: 889, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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