|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Workout Harbourside A v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 23 Mar 2017)Match played between Maxine Hobbs (home) and Olivia Huxtable (away).Match won by Maxine Hobbs. Result: 9-2,9-5,9-1. Starting level for Maxine Hobbs: 1,007, level confidence: 58%. Starting level for Olivia Huxtable: 458, level confidence: 68%. Maxine Hobbs to win as she is currently playing 120% better than Olivia Huxtable. Maxine Hobbs won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 86% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Maxine Hobbs played 86% better than Olivia Huxtable in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Maxine Hobbs was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 700 and 1,007 without affecting her level. In this case, Maxine Hobbs played at level 854 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Olivia Huxtable is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Maxine Hobbs changes to 0% and Olivia Huxtable changes to 0%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Maxine Hobbs becomes 0% and for Olivia Huxtable becomes 0%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Maxine Hobbs is 0% and for Olivia Huxtable is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Maxine Hobbs: 76%, Olivia Huxtable: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Maxine Hobbs: 70%, Olivia Huxtable: 76%. A final adjustment of +2.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Maxine Hobbs: 1,056, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Olivia Huxtable: 460, level confidence: 76%. Notes
|