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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Chicken Dinners v University of Bristol Beasts (Tue 31 Jan 2017)Match played between Alisha Bhanot (home) and Hannah Slatford (away).Match won by Alisha Bhanot. Result: 9-6,9-0,9-1. Starting level for Alisha Bhanot: 889, level confidence: 61%. Starting level for Hannah Slatford: 168, level confidence: 34%. Alisha Bhanot to win as she is currently playing 429% better than Hannah Slatford. Alisha Bhanot won all of the games and 79% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 97% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alisha Bhanot played 97% better than Hannah Slatford in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alisha Bhanot was taking it easy by anything up to 44%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 242 and 889 without affecting her level. In this case, Alisha Bhanot played at level 406 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alisha Bhanot would normally have been playing at level 499 (based on typical behaviour), Hannah Slatford played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 23%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot changes to 0% and Hannah Slatford changes to +9.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot becomes 0% and for Hannah Slatford becomes +6.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Alisha Bhanot is 0% and for Hannah Slatford is +4.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alisha Bhanot: 78%, Hannah Slatford: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alisha Bhanot: 48%, Hannah Slatford: 36%. A final adjustment of +3.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Alisha Bhanot: 956, level confidence: 48%. Final level for Hannah Slatford: 174, level confidence: 36%. Notes
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