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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Beasts v University of Bristol Chicken Dinners (Thu 02 Mar 2017)Match played between Lydia Shepherd (home) and Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold (away).Match won by Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold. Result: 5-9,2-9,4-9. Starting level for Lydia Shepherd: 215, level confidence: 59%. Starting level for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold: 381, level confidence: 82%. Set manually. Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold to win as she is currently playing 77% better than Lydia Shepherd. Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold played 57% better than Lydia Shepherd in this match. In this case, Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold played at level 343 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold would normally have been playing at level 348 (based on typical behaviour), Lydia Shepherd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold changes to 0% and Lydia Shepherd changes to +1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold becomes 0% and for Lydia Shepherd becomes +1.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold is 0% and for Lydia Shepherd is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold: 91%, Lydia Shepherd: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold: 85%, Lydia Shepherd: 72%. A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lydia Shepherd: 217, level confidence: 72%. Final level for Alice 'The Tinwomen' Greswold: 388, level confidence: 85%. Notes
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