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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Workout Harbourside A v University of Bath Ladies A (Thu 19 Jan 2017)Match played between Yi Lin Yoong (home) and Catherine Cole (away).Match won by Yi Lin Yoong. Result: 9-3,9-3,9-6. Starting level for Yi Lin Yoong: 532, level confidence: 54%. Starting level for Catherine Cole: 262, level confidence: 54%. Yi Lin Yoong to win as she is currently playing 103% better than Catherine Cole. Yi Lin Yoong won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if she was better by around 51% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yi Lin Yoong played 52% better than Catherine Cole in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Yi Lin Yoong was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives her an allowed level range for this match between 391 and 532 without affecting her level. In this case, Yi Lin Yoong played at level 430 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Yi Lin Yoong would normally have been playing at level 464 (based on typical behaviour), Catherine Cole played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.8%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.4% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yi Lin Yoong changes to 0% and Catherine Cole changes to +5.4%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yi Lin Yoong becomes 0% and for Catherine Cole becomes +4.2%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Yi Lin Yoong is 0% and for Catherine Cole is +3.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yi Lin Yoong: 73%, Catherine Cole: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yi Lin Yoong: 63%, Catherine Cole: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Yi Lin Yoong: 531, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Catherine Cole: 269, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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