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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: Workout Harbourside A v University of Bath Ladies A (Thu 19 Jan 2017)Match played between Unknown Player (home) and Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns (away).Match won by Unknown Player. Result: 9-2,9-0,9-4. Starting level for Unknown Player: 1,989, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns: 124, level confidence: 10%. Unknown Player to win as he is currently playing 1504% better than Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns. Unknown Player won all of the games and 82% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 118% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Unknown Player played 118% better than Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Unknown Player was taking it easy by anything up to 68%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 156 and 1,989 without affecting his level. In this case, Unknown Player played at level 416 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Unknown Player would normally have been playing at level 641 (based on typical behaviour), Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 54%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 11% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Unknown Player changes to 0% and Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns changes to +11%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Unknown Player becomes 0% and for Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns becomes +7.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Womens Ladies Spring 2016/2017' so the adjustment for Unknown Player is 0% and for Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns is +5.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Unknown Player: 32%, Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Unknown Player: 12%, Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns: 12%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Unknown Player: 1,939, level confidence: 12%. Final level for Philippa 'Lilphilgainz' Burns: 136, level confidence: 12%. Notes
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