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Login: | Explaining level changesPierre Yves Briens v Owen James (Sun 05 Feb 2017)Match won by Pierre Yves Briens. Result: 9-3,9-3,9-5.Starting level for Pierre Yves Briens: 1,011, level confidence: 13%. Starting level for Owen James: 354, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Pierre Yves Briens to win as he is currently playing 186% better than Owen James. Pierre Yves Briens won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Pierre Yves Briens played 57% better than Owen James in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Pierre Yves Briens was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 529 and 1,011 without affecting his level. In this case, Pierre Yves Briens played at level 659 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Pierre Yves Briens would normally have been playing at level 780 (based on typical behaviour), Owen James played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 10.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Pierre Yves Briens changes to 0% and Owen James changes to +1.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Pierre Yves Briens becomes 0% and for Owen James becomes +1.6%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Kingswood Boxes' so the adjustment for Pierre Yves Briens is 0% and for Owen James is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Pierre Yves Briens: 37%, Owen James: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Pierre Yves Briens: 27%, Owen James: 70%. A final adjustment of -2.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Pierre Yves Briens: 968, level confidence: 27%. Final level for Owen James: 356, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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