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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Westbury David Lloyd Eurotaxis v David Lloyd (Wed 20 May 2009)Match played between Keith Sanzo (home) and Asa Morris (away).Match won by Asa Morris. Result: 8-15,13-15,10-15:13-15,7-15,13-15:15-14,10-15,15-13,6-15,7-15:15-10,11-15,3-15,5-15. Starting level for Keith Sanzo: 2,953, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Starting level for Asa Morris: 5,646, level confidence: 59%. Asa Morris to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Keith Sanzo. Asa Morris won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Asa Morris played 48% better than Keith Sanzo in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Asa Morris was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,304 and 5,646 without affecting his level. In this case, Asa Morris played at level 4,695 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Asa Morris would normally have been playing at level 5,030 (based on typical behaviour), Keith Sanzo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Asa Morris changes to 0% and Keith Sanzo changes to +4.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Asa Morris becomes 0% and for Keith Sanzo becomes +2.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2008/2009' so the adjustment for Asa Morris is 0% and for Keith Sanzo is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Asa Morris: 77%, Keith Sanzo: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Asa Morris: 68%, Keith Sanzo: 75%. A final adjustment of -1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith Sanzo: 2,991, level confidence: 75%. Final level for Asa Morris: 5,533, level confidence: 68%. Notes
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