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Login: | Explaining level changesPaul Hunt v Yi Lin Yoong (Tue 07 Mar 2017)Match won by Paul Hunt. Result: 9-0,9-2,9-2.Starting level for Paul Hunt: 670, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Starting level for Yi Lin Yoong: 498, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Paul Hunt to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Yi Lin Yoong. Paul Hunt won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Hunt played 164% better than Yi Lin Yoong in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Hunt actually played at a level of 939 and Yi Lin Yoong at a level of 356. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 40% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Hunt changes to +28% and Yi Lin Yoong changes to -34%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Hunt becomes +14.7% and for Yi Lin Yoong becomes -17%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Workout Harbourside Boxes' so the adjustment for Paul Hunt is +7.3% and for Yi Lin Yoong is -8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Yi Lin Yoong is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Hunt: 94%, Yi Lin Yoong: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Hunt: 67%, Yi Lin Yoong: 61%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Paul Hunt: 719, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Yi Lin Yoong: 478, level confidence: 61%. Notes
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