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Login: | Explaining level changesYi Lin Yoong v Joseph Towse (Wed 22 Mar 2017)Match won by Yi Lin Yoong. Result: 3-0.Starting level for Yi Lin Yoong: 480, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Joseph Towse: 722, level confidence: 72%. Set manually. Joseph Towse to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Yi Lin Yoong. Yi Lin Yoong won all of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yi Lin Yoong actually played at a level of 779 and Joseph Towse at a level of 445. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 62% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 48% and 48% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 25%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yi Lin Yoong changes to +25% and Joseph Towse changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yi Lin Yoong becomes +13.6% and for Joseph Towse becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Workout Harbourside Boxes' so the adjustment for Yi Lin Yoong is +6.8% and for Joseph Towse is -6.2%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Joseph Towse is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yi Lin Yoong: 83%, Joseph Towse: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yi Lin Yoong: 51%, Joseph Towse: 52%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Yi Lin Yoong: 512, level confidence: 51%. Final level for Joseph Towse: 687, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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