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Login: | Explaining level changesViri Chauhan v Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams (Sun 26 Mar 2017)Match won by Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams. Result: 9-2,5-9,3-9,1-9.Starting level for Viri Chauhan: 810, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,148, level confidence: 89%. Set manually. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Viri Chauhan. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams won 75% of the games and 62% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams played 26% better than Viri Chauhan in this match. As Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams has played below his allowed range at 1,034, his level reduction is 1% before damping. On the assumption that Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams would normally have been playing at level 1,105 (based on typical behaviour), Viri Chauhan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.9%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.9% and 3.3% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams changes to -0.7% and Viri Chauhan changes to +3.3%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams becomes -0.7% and for Viri Chauhan becomes +3.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams is -0.3% and for Viri Chauhan is +1.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 94%, Viri Chauhan: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 89%, Viri Chauhan: 82%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Viri Chauhan: 822, level confidence: 82%. Final level for Nye 'No Need To Shout!' Williams: 1,142, level confidence: 89%. Notes
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