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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Redland Summer B v Redland Summer A (Wed 24 May 2017)Match played between Mark Taylor (home) and Ben Macdonald (away).Match won by Ben Macdonald. Result: 5-11,5-11,5-11. Starting level for Mark Taylor: 3,213, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 4,231, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Ben Macdonald to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Mark Taylor. Ben Macdonald won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Macdonald played 120% better than Mark Taylor in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Macdonald actually played at a level of 5,469 and Mark Taylor at a level of 2,486. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Macdonald changes to +23% and Mark Taylor changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Macdonald becomes +7.5% and for Mark Taylor becomes -8.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Ben Macdonald is +4.9% and for Mark Taylor is -5.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Taylor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Macdonald: 87%, Mark Taylor: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Macdonald: 67%, Mark Taylor: 64%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark Taylor: 3,055, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 4,404, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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