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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: Westbury David Lloyd A v Redland Summer A (Wed 07 Jun 2017)Match played between Keith Sanzo (home) and Phil Rea (away).Match won by Keith Sanzo. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-6. Starting level for Keith Sanzo: 4,714, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Phil Rea: 3,214, level confidence: 69%. Keith Sanzo to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Phil Rea. Keith Sanzo won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Sanzo played 154% better than Phil Rea in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Sanzo actually played at a level of 6,202 and Phil Rea at a level of 2,443. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Sanzo changes to +22% and Phil Rea changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Sanzo becomes +7.1% and for Phil Rea becomes -8.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Keith Sanzo is +4.6% and for Phil Rea is -5.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Phil Rea is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Sanzo: 89%, Phil Rea: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Sanzo: 68%, Phil Rea: 63%. A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Keith Sanzo: 4,957, level confidence: 68%. Final level for Phil Rea: 3,071, level confidence: 63%. Notes
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