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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier: David Lloyd A v Redland Summer A (Wed 19 Jul 2017)Match played between Grant Jones (home) and Ben Bickers (away).Match won by Ben Bickers. Result: 1-11,1-11,3-11. Starting level for Grant Jones: 3,141, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Ben Bickers: 4,524, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Ben Bickers to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Grant Jones. Ben Bickers won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Bickers played 560% better than Grant Jones in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Bickers actually played at a level of 9,684 and Grant Jones at a level of 1,467. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 114% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 89% and 89% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Bickers changes to +70% and Grant Jones changes to -89%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Bickers becomes +18.4% and for Grant Jones becomes -25%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Ben Bickers is +12% and for Grant Jones is -15%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ben Bickers is limited to +10% and Grant Jones is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Bickers: 89%, Grant Jones: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Bickers: 41%, Grant Jones: 37%. A final adjustment of -1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Grant Jones: 2,951, level confidence: 37%. Final level for Ben Bickers: 4,913, level confidence: 41%. Notes
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