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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Westbury David Lloyd B v Redland Summer C (Wed 21 Jun 2017)Match played between Craig Phillips (home) and Ben Dillistone (away).Match won by Ben Dillistone. Result: 15-11,10-15,8-15,13-15. Starting level for Craig Phillips: 1,098, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Ben Dillistone: 2,328, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Ben Dillistone to win as he is currently playing 112% better than Craig Phillips. Ben Dillistone won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Dillistone played 24% better than Craig Phillips in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Dillistone was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,636 and 2,328 without affecting his level. As Ben Dillistone has played below his allowed range at 1,492, his level reduction is 9.6% before damping. On the assumption that Ben Dillistone would normally have been playing at level 2,003 (based on typical behaviour), Craig Phillips played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 14% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Dillistone changes to -6.4% and Craig Phillips changes to +14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Dillistone becomes -3.5% and for Craig Phillips becomes +8.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Ben Dillistone is -2.2% and for Craig Phillips is +5.3%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Dillistone: 87%, Craig Phillips: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Dillistone: 67%, Craig Phillips: 66%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Craig Phillips: 1,152, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Ben Dillistone: 2,261, level confidence: 67%. Notes
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