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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Workout Harbourside v Westbury David Lloyd B (Wed 28 Jun 2017)Match played between Rees Batley (home) and Craig Phillips (away).Match won by Rees Batley. Result: 15-12,15-5,16-14. Starting level for Rees Batley: 2,819, level confidence: 48%. Starting level for Craig Phillips: 1,121, level confidence: 69%. Rees Batley to win as he is currently playing 151% better than Craig Phillips. Rees Batley won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rees Batley played 51% better than Craig Phillips in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rees Batley was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,727 and 2,819 without affecting his level. As Rees Batley has played below his allowed range at 1,707, his level reduction is 1.1% before damping. On the assumption that Rees Batley would normally have been playing at level 2,288 (based on typical behaviour), Craig Phillips played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.7% and 10.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rees Batley changes to -0.7% and Craig Phillips changes to +7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rees Batley becomes -0.5% and for Craig Phillips becomes +4.7%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Rees Batley is -0.3% and for Craig Phillips is +3.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rees Batley: 69%, Craig Phillips: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rees Batley: 54%, Craig Phillips: 65%. A final adjustment of +1.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rees Batley: 2,808, level confidence: 54%. Final level for Craig Phillips: 1,198, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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