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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Weston String Strokers v Thornbury A (Summer) (Wed 07 Jun 2017)Match played between Rob McKinlay (home) and Vivi B (away).Match won by Rob McKinlay. Result: 15-9,15-11,15-13. Starting level for Rob McKinlay: 2,998, level confidence: 66%. Starting level for Vivi B: 1,388, level confidence: 52%. Rob McKinlay to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Vivi B. Rob McKinlay won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob McKinlay played 43% better than Vivi B in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rob McKinlay was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,078 and 2,998 without affecting his level. As Rob McKinlay has played below his allowed range at 2,027, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Rob McKinlay would normally have been playing at level 2,565 (based on typical behaviour), Vivi B played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 9.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob McKinlay changes to -1.3% and Vivi B changes to +9.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob McKinlay becomes -0.9% and for Vivi B becomes +5.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Rob McKinlay is -0.6% and for Vivi B is +3.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob McKinlay: 81%, Vivi B: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob McKinlay: 66%, Vivi B: 59%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Rob McKinlay: 2,956, level confidence: 66%. Final level for Vivi B: 1,445, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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