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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 2: University of Bristol Ballers v BAWA / Kingswood (Wed 19 Jul 2017)Match played between Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner (home) and Neil Bridle (away).Match won by Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner. Result: 15-9,15-11,15-13. Starting level for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 1,857, level confidence: 70%. Starting level for Neil Bridle: 1,193, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Neil Bridle. Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner won all of the games and 58% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner played 43% better than Neil Bridle in this match. In this case, Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner played at level 1,726 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner would normally have been playing at level 1,753 (based on typical behaviour), Neil Bridle played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner changes to 0% and Neil Bridle changes to +1.1%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner becomes 0% and for Neil Bridle becomes +1%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner is 0% and for Neil Bridle is +0.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 84%, Neil Bridle: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 80%, Neil Bridle: 85%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben ‘The Doctor’ Turner: 1,848, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Neil Bridle: 1,194, level confidence: 85%. Notes
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