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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Bradley Stoke Squash Club A v Redland Summer E (Wed 17 May 2017)Match played between Andrew Blake (home) and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss (away).Match won by Andrew Blake. Result: 10-9,9-2,9-2. Starting level for Andrew Blake: 1,074, level confidence: 60%. Starting level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 865, level confidence: 68%. Andrew Blake to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss. Andrew Blake won all of the games and 68% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Blake played 50% better than Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Blake actually played at a level of 1,182 and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss at a level of 786. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9% and 9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Blake changes to +9% and Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss changes to -7.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Blake becomes +5.8% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss becomes -5.4%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Andrew Blake is +3.7% and for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss is -3.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Blake: 78%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Blake: 71%, Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 75%. A final adjustment of -1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andrew Blake: 1,089, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Patrick 'In Him We Trust' Truss: 832, level confidence: 75%. Notes
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