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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 5: Bradley Stoke Squash Club A v Weston Shankers (Wed 14 Jun 2017)Match played between Andrew Blake (home) and Shawn Hale (away).Match won by Andrew Blake. Result: 9-3,9-2,9-0. Starting level for Andrew Blake: 1,153, level confidence: 75%. Set manually. Starting level for Shawn Hale: 832, level confidence: 89%. Set manually. Andrew Blake to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Shawn Hale. Andrew Blake won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Blake played 134% better than Shawn Hale in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Blake actually played at a level of 1,498 and Shawn Hale at a level of 640. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Blake changes to +25% and Shawn Hale changes to -20%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Blake becomes +12.6% and for Shawn Hale becomes -11%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Andrew Blake is +8.2% and for Shawn Hale is -7.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Shawn Hale is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Blake: 87%, Shawn Hale: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Blake: 67%, Shawn Hale: 73%. A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Andrew Blake: 1,222, level confidence: 67%. Final level for Shawn Hale: 802, level confidence: 73%. Notes
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