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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: Kingsdown v BAWA (Wed 28 Jun 2017)Match played between Michael Taylor (home) and Stephen Green (away).Match won by Stephen Green. Result: 4-9,0-9,0-9. Starting level for Michael Taylor: 397, level confidence: 88%. Set manually. Starting level for Stephen Green: 470, level confidence: 55%. Stephen Green to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Michael Taylor. Stephen Green won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stephen Green played 164% better than Michael Taylor in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stephen Green actually played at a level of 702 and Michael Taylor at a level of 266. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stephen Green changes to +45% and Michael Taylor changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stephen Green becomes +22% and for Michael Taylor becomes -13%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Stephen Green is +14% and for Michael Taylor is -8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Stephen Green is limited to +10% and Michael Taylor is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stephen Green: 74%, Michael Taylor: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stephen Green: 50%, Michael Taylor: 63%. A final adjustment of -3.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Michael Taylor: 375, level confidence: 63%. Final level for Stephen Green: 490, level confidence: 50%. Notes
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