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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 7: Kingsdown v Workout Harbourside Summer 4 (Wed 31 May 2017)Match played between Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey (home) and Alex Vacher (away).Match won by Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey. Result: 9-4,7-9,9-1,9-5:9-4,7-9,9-1,9-6:5-9,5-9,3-9:9-3,5-9,10-8,9-0. Starting level for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 1,176, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Alex Vacher: 851, level confidence: 62%. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Alex Vacher. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey won 75% of the games and 64% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey played 28% better than Alex Vacher in this match. In this case, Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey played at level 1,114 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey would normally have been playing at level 1,138 (based on typical behaviour), Alex Vacher played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.1%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey changes to 0% and Alex Vacher changes to +1.8%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey becomes 0% and for Alex Vacher becomes +1.8%. Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Mixed Summer 2017' so the adjustment for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey is 0% and for Alex Vacher is +1.1%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 87%, Alex Vacher: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 84%, Alex Vacher: 76%. A final adjustment of +1.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tom 'The Fisherman' Carey: 1,208, level confidence: 84%. Final level for Alex Vacher: 865, level confidence: 76%. Notes
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