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Login: | Explaining level changesBen 'Taggart' Kerr v Mark Bishop (Tue 06 Jun 2017)Match won by Ben 'Taggart' Kerr. Result: 9-4,9-4,9-2.Starting level for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 509, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Bishop: 568, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Mark Bishop to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Ben 'Taggart' Kerr. Ben 'Taggart' Kerr won all of the games and 73% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben 'Taggart' Kerr played 67% better than Mark Bishop in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben 'Taggart' Kerr actually played at a level of 695 and Mark Bishop at a level of 416. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr changes to +34% and Mark Bishop changes to -34%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr becomes +17.5% and for Mark Bishop becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Westbury David Lloyd Boxes' so the adjustment for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr is +8.7% and for Mark Bishop is -8.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark Bishop is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 88%, Mark Bishop: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 64%, Mark Bishop: 64%. A final adjustment of +3.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Ben 'Taggart' Kerr: 570, level confidence: 64%. Final level for Mark Bishop: 564, level confidence: 64%. Notes
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