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Login: | Explaining level changesJohn Welton v James Cox (Fri 30 Jun 2017)Match won by John Welton. Result: 3-2.Starting level for John Welton: 5,760, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for James Cox: 2,979, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. John Welton to win as he is currently playing 93% better than James Cox. John Welton won 60% of the games. There are no points scores. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that John Welton was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,274 and 5,760 without affecting his level. As John Welton has played below his allowed range at 3,742, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that John Welton would normally have been playing at level 5,112 (based on typical behaviour), James Cox played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 25%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 17% respectively. Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 16%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Welton changes to -9.1% and James Cox changes to +14%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Welton becomes -3.4% and for James Cox becomes +5.6%. Given John Welton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 61% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Given James Cox's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Workout Harbourside Boxes' so the adjustment for John Welton is -1% and for James Cox is +2.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Welton: 82%, James Cox: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Welton: 62%, James Cox: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for John Welton: 5,693, level confidence: 62%. Final level for James Cox: 3,045, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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