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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Gordano A v David Lloyd A (Wed 16 Aug 2017)Match played between Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum (home) and Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey (away).Match won by Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey. Result: 7-15,4-15,9-15. Starting level for Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum: 398, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 2,337, level confidence: 11%. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey to win as he is currently playing 487% better than Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 125% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey played 125% better than Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey was taking it easy by anything up to 47%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 567 and 2,337 without affecting his level. In this case, Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey played at level 1,056 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey would normally have been playing at level 1,245 (based on typical behaviour), Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey changes to 0% and Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum changes to +7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey becomes 0% and for Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum becomes +5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Doubles 2017' so the adjustment for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey is 0% and for Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum is +3.7%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 34%, Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 21%, Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum: 20%. Final level for Adrian Tayler/Dave McCallum: 413, level confidence: 20%. Final level for Paul Woodman/Pete Harvey: 2,337, level confidence: 21%. Notes
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