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Login: | Explaining level changesJonathan Platt v Ian Beavon (Sun 30 Jul 2017)Match won by Jonathan Platt. Result: 9-0,9-0,9-4.Starting level for Jonathan Platt: 1,372, level confidence: 69%. Starting level for Ian Beavon: 1,079, level confidence: 64%. Jonathan Platt to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Ian Beavon. Jonathan Platt won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jonathan Platt played 164% better than Ian Beavon in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jonathan Platt actually played at a level of 1,977 and Ian Beavon at a level of 749. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 44% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 38% and 38% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jonathan Platt changes to +35% and Ian Beavon changes to -38%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jonathan Platt becomes +15.7% and for Ian Beavon becomes -19%. Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Redland Green Boxes' so the adjustment for Jonathan Platt is +7.9% and for Ian Beavon is -8.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Beavon is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jonathan Platt: 83%, Ian Beavon: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jonathan Platt: 58%, Ian Beavon: 55%. A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jonathan Platt: 1,478, level confidence: 58%. Final level for Ian Beavon: 1,026, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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