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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 27 Sep 2017)Match played between Jeremy Harris (home) and Luke Bishop (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 10-12,6-11,7-11:11-6,11-7,6-11,11-7:11-4,11-4,14-12:13-15,16-18,11-4,11-9,11-6:11-7,5-11,11-6,12-10. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 8,005, level confidence: 40%. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 11,781, level confidence: 31%. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Jeremy Harris. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 50% better than Jeremy Harris in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 11,901 and Jeremy Harris at a level of 7,924. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 0.8% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +0.8% and Jeremy Harris changes to -0.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +0.4% and for Jeremy Harris becomes -0.3%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 22% has been applied to his level change. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is 0% and for Jeremy Harris is 0%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 55%, Jeremy Harris: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 55%, Jeremy Harris: 62%. A final adjustment of +1.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 7,854, level confidence: 62%. Final level for Luke Bishop: 12,366, level confidence: 55%. Notes
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