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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 08 Nov 2017)Match played between Tim Arthur (home) and Richard King (away).Match won by Tim Arthur. Result: 11-6,5-11,11-7,7-11,11-9:6-11,11-6,9-11,11-7,9-11:11-8,8-11,6-11,9-11:11-8,6-11,10-12,3-11:11-5,11-0,11-5. Starting level for Tim Arthur: 6,319, level confidence: 73%. Set manually. Starting level for Richard King: 5,120, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Tim Arthur to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Richard King. Tim Arthur won 60% of the games and 51% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Arthur played 8% better than Richard King in this match. As Tim Arthur has played below his allowed range at 5,818, his level reduction is 5.1% before damping. On the assumption that Tim Arthur would normally have been playing at level 6,228 (based on typical behaviour), Richard King played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6.1%. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Arthur changes to -4.4% and Richard King changes to +5.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Arthur becomes -2.1% and for Richard King becomes +2.5%. Given Tim Arthur's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.4% has been applied to his level change. Given Richard King's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Tim Arthur is -1.5% and for Richard King is +1.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Arthur: 86%, Richard King: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Arthur: 80%, Richard King: 79%. A final adjustment of -5.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Tim Arthur: 5,698, level confidence: 80%. Final level for Richard King: 5,110, level confidence: 79%. Notes
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