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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 08 Nov 2017)Match played between Arnaud Masset (home) and Jason Smith (away).Match won by Arnaud Masset. Result: 11-5,11-0,11-5. Starting level for Arnaud Masset: 4,649, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Jason Smith: 2,663, level confidence: 69%. Arnaud Masset to win as he is currently playing 75% better than Jason Smith. Arnaud Masset won all of the games and 77% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Arnaud Masset played 230% better than Jason Smith in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Arnaud Masset actually played at a level of 6,392 and Jason Smith at a level of 1,937. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset changes to +27% and Jason Smith changes to -24%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Arnaud Masset becomes +8.4% and for Jason Smith becomes -9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Arnaud Masset is +6.3% and for Jason Smith is -6.6%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jason Smith is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Arnaud Masset: 79%, Jason Smith: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Arnaud Masset: 57%, Jason Smith: 60%. A final adjustment of -3.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Arnaud Masset: 4,620, level confidence: 57%. Final level for Jason Smith: 2,532, level confidence: 60%. Notes
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