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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Redland Z (Wed 15 Nov 2017)Match played between Jeremy Harris (home) and Ben Macdonald (away).Match won by Jeremy Harris. Result: 11-6,11-3,9-11,11-8:11-2,11-7,11-3:11-2,11-3,11-6:11-4,11-7,11-5:12-10,6-11,11-7,5-11,12-10. Starting level for Jeremy Harris: 8,010, level confidence: 62%. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 4,596, level confidence: 63%. Jeremy Harris to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Ben Macdonald. Jeremy Harris won 75% of the games and 60% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeremy Harris played 33% better than Ben Macdonald in this match. As Jeremy Harris has played below his allowed range at 6,354, his level reduction is 3.8% before damping. On the assumption that Jeremy Harris would normally have been playing at level 7,346 (based on typical behaviour), Ben Macdonald played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.8% and 7.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris changes to -2.8% and Ben Macdonald changes to +7%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeremy Harris becomes -1.5% and for Ben Macdonald becomes +3%. Given Jeremy Harris's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Jeremy Harris is -1% and for Ben Macdonald is +2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeremy Harris: 79%, Ben Macdonald: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeremy Harris: 69%, Ben Macdonald: 70%. A final adjustment of -0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jeremy Harris: 7,917, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 4,660, level confidence: 70%. Notes
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