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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Workout Harbourside 1 v Redland Anacondas (Wed 15 Nov 2017)Match played between Richard King (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Richard King. Result: 3-11,11-7,11-7,11-4. Starting level for Richard King: 5,110, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Starting level for Dale Diment: 6,815, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Richard King. Richard King won 75% of the games and 55% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard King played 25% better than Dale Diment in this match. An upset! Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard King actually played at a level of 6,590 and Dale Diment at a level of 5,284. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard King changes to +22% and Dale Diment changes to -25%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard King becomes +7% and for Dale Diment becomes -7.1%. Given Richard King's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.5% has been applied to his level change. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Richard King is +5.2% and for Dale Diment is -4.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard King: 89%, Dale Diment: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard King: 69%, Dale Diment: 65%. A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard King: 5,352, level confidence: 69%. Final level for Dale Diment: 6,515, level confidence: 65%. Notes
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