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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: University of Bath 1 v Shepton Mallet A (Wed 04 Oct 2017)Match played between Cameron Haddow (home) and Adam Sindall-White (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 11-9,11-8,11-6. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 6,413, level confidence: 10%. Starting level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,164, level confidence: 23%. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 103% better than Adam Sindall-White. Cameron Haddow won all of the games and 59% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 47% better than Adam Sindall-White in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cameron Haddow was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,719 and 6,413 without affecting his level. As Cameron Haddow has played below his allowed range at 4,689, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Cameron Haddow would normally have been playing at level 5,595 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Sindall-White played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.6%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 6.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to -0.4% and Adam Sindall-White changes to +2.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes -0.2% and for Adam Sindall-White becomes +1.9%. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.7% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is 0% and for Adam Sindall-White is +1.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 32%, Adam Sindall-White: 48%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 27%, Adam Sindall-White: 41%. A final adjustment of -9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 5,093, level confidence: 27%. Final level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,397, level confidence: 41%. Notes
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