|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Shepton Mallet A v University of Bath 1 (Thu 16 Nov 2017)Match played between Luke Howells (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Cameron Haddow. Result: 8-11,4-11,6-11. Starting level for Luke Howells: 2,357, level confidence: 35%. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 5,377, level confidence: 79%. Set manually. Cameron Haddow to win as he is currently playing 128% better than Luke Howells. Cameron Haddow won all of the games and 65% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Cameron Haddow played 83% better than Luke Howells in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Cameron Haddow was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 3,635 and 5,377 without affecting his level. In this case, Cameron Haddow played at level 4,419 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Cameron Haddow would normally have been playing at level 4,518 (based on typical behaviour), Luke Howells played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.5% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow changes to 0% and Luke Howells changes to +1.5%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Cameron Haddow becomes 0% and for Luke Howells becomes +1.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Cameron Haddow is 0% and for Luke Howells is +0.8%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Cameron Haddow: 89%, Luke Howells: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Cameron Haddow: 79%, Luke Howells: 53%. A final adjustment of +7.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Howells: 2,757, level confidence: 53%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 5,363, level confidence: 79%. Notes
|