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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Shepton Mallet A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 11 Oct 2017)Match played between Adam Sindall-White (home) and Ben Macdonald (away).Match won by Adam Sindall-White. Result: 12-10,11-3,11-1. Starting level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,397, level confidence: 44%. Starting level for Ben Macdonald: 4,210, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Ben Macdonald to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Adam Sindall-White. Adam Sindall-White won all of the games and 71% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 143% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adam Sindall-White played 143% better than Ben Macdonald in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adam Sindall-White actually played at a level of 5,893 and Ben Macdonald at a level of 2,427. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 73% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 64% and 64% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White changes to +64% and Ben Macdonald changes to -29%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White becomes +18.7% and for Ben Macdonald becomes -9.1%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Adam Sindall-White is +14% and for Ben Macdonald is -6.7%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Adam Sindall-White is limited to +10% and Ben Macdonald is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adam Sindall-White: 66%, Ben Macdonald: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adam Sindall-White: 38%, Ben Macdonald: 51%. A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Adam Sindall-White: 3,746, level confidence: 38%. Final level for Ben Macdonald: 4,017, level confidence: 51%. Notes
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