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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Shepton Mallet A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 18 Oct 2017)Match played between Luke Bishop (home) and Jack Alcock (away).Match won by Luke Bishop. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-9:11-9,9-11,11-9,11-2:12-14,11-7,10-12,11-6,3-11:12-10,9-11,7-11,8-11:11-9,11-8,11-8. Starting level for Luke Bishop: 12,449, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Jack Alcock: 7,400, level confidence: 50%. Luke Bishop to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Jack Alcock. Luke Bishop won all of the games and 63% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Bishop played 74% better than Jack Alcock in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Bishop actually played at a level of 12,649 and Jack Alcock at a level of 7,283. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Bishop changes to +1.1% and Jack Alcock changes to -1.2%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Bishop becomes +0.5% and for Jack Alcock becomes -0.7%. Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change. Given Jack Alcock's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 9.2% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Luke Bishop is +0.3% and for Jack Alcock is -0.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Bishop: 75%, Jack Alcock: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Bishop: 73%, Jack Alcock: 69%. A final adjustment of +1.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Luke Bishop: 12,871, level confidence: 73%. Final level for Jack Alcock: 7,389, level confidence: 69%. Notes
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