|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Redland Anacondas (Wed 29 Nov 2017)Match played between Callum Davidson (home) and Dale Diment (away).Match won by Callum Davidson. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-6. Starting level for Callum Davidson: 6,370, level confidence: 32%. Starting level for Dale Diment: 6,599, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Callum Davidson. Callum Davidson won all of the games and 69% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Callum Davidson played 120% better than Dale Diment in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Callum Davidson actually played at a level of 9,617 and Dale Diment at a level of 4,371. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 51% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Callum Davidson changes to +50% and Dale Diment changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Callum Davidson becomes +12.8% and for Dale Diment becomes -5%. Given Callum Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.5% has been applied to his level change. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Callum Davidson is +9.1% and for Dale Diment is -3.5%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Callum Davidson: 56%, Dale Diment: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Callum Davidson: 37%, Dale Diment: 58%. A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Callum Davidson: 7,193, level confidence: 37%. Final level for Dale Diment: 6,282, level confidence: 58%. Notes
|