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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Redland Anacondas v University of Bath 1 (Wed 06 Dec 2017)Match played between Dale Diment (home) and Cameron Haddow (away).Match won by Dale Diment. Result: 12-10,11-1,11-2. Starting level for Dale Diment: 6,282, level confidence: 56%. Starting level for Cameron Haddow: 5,653, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Dale Diment to win as he is currently playing 11% better than Cameron Haddow. Dale Diment won all of the games and 72% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 162% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dale Diment played 162% better than Cameron Haddow in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dale Diment actually played at a level of 9,637 and Cameron Haddow at a level of 3,685. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dale Diment changes to +50% and Cameron Haddow changes to -32%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dale Diment becomes +12.9% and for Cameron Haddow becomes -9.2%. Given Dale Diment's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 5.2% has been applied to his level change. Given Cameron Haddow's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.8% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously... Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Dale Diment is +9.2% and for Cameron Haddow is -6.5%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Cameron Haddow is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dale Diment: 75%, Cameron Haddow: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dale Diment: 49%, Cameron Haddow: 57%. A final adjustment of +6.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Dale Diment: 6,929, level confidence: 49%. Final level for Cameron Haddow: 5,999, level confidence: 57%. Notes
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