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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier A: Thornbury A v Workout Harbourside 1 (Wed 01 Nov 2017)Match played between Sam Davidson (home) and Richard King (away).Match won by Richard King. Result: 11-9,7-11,10-12,11-8,5-11:6-11,4-11,4-11:9-11,11-8,11-7,9-11,14-12:10-12,4-11,7-11:7-11,12-10,7-11,9-11. Starting level for Sam Davidson: 6,479, level confidence: 50%. Starting level for Richard King: 4,907, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Sam Davidson to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Richard King. Richard King won 60% of the games and 54% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard King played 11% better than Sam Davidson in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard King actually played at a level of 5,953 and Sam Davidson at a level of 5,340. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard King changes to +12% and Sam Davidson changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard King becomes +4.3% and for Sam Davidson becomes -5.6%. Given Sam Davidson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Richard King is +3.2% and for Sam Davidson is -3.9%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard King: 88%, Sam Davidson: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard King: 72%, Sam Davidson: 59%. A final adjustment of +1.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sam Davidson: 6,319, level confidence: 59%. Final level for Richard King: 5,120, level confidence: 72%. Notes
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