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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier B: Lansdown 1 v Workout Harbourside (Wed 06 Dec 2017)Match played between Jarek Terlecki (home) and Duncan Higgins (away).Match won by Jarek Terlecki. Result: 11-6,11-3,11-5. Starting level for Jarek Terlecki: 4,626, level confidence: 67%. Starting level for Duncan Higgins: 3,551, level confidence: 69%. Jarek Terlecki to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Duncan Higgins. Jarek Terlecki won all of the games and 70% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jarek Terlecki played 136% better than Duncan Higgins in this match. Jarek Terlecki has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 5215. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jarek Terlecki actually played at a level of 6,607 and Duncan Higgins at a level of 2,803. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jarek Terlecki changes to +22% and Duncan Higgins changes to -21%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jarek Terlecki becomes +6.8% and for Duncan Higgins becomes -7.3%. Given Jarek Terlecki's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 0.9% has been applied to his level change. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Jarek Terlecki is +5% and for Duncan Higgins is -5.4%. Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Jarek Terlecki is +18%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jarek Terlecki: 82%, Duncan Higgins: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jarek Terlecki: 61%, Duncan Higgins: 62%. A final adjustment of -5.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Jarek Terlecki: 4,934, level confidence: 61%. Final level for Duncan Higgins: 3,377, level confidence: 62%. Notes
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