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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: BAWA A v Weston String Strokers (Wed 22 Nov 2017)Match played between Lyndon Hore (home) and Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison (away).Match won by Lyndon Hore. Result: 9-1,9-1,9-1. Starting level for Lyndon Hore: 3,111, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 1,541, level confidence: 53%. Lyndon Hore to win as he is currently playing 102% better than Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison. Lyndon Hore won all of the games and 90% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 209% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Hore played 209% better than Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Hore actually played at a level of 3,849 and Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison at a level of 1,246. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Hore changes to +11% and Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison changes to -16%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Hore becomes +4.6% and for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison becomes -7.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Lyndon Hore is +3.5% and for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison is -5.8%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Hore: 88%, Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Hore: 71%, Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 59%. A final adjustment of +2.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lyndon Hore: 3,259, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Mark 'Sunbed' Harrison: 1,529, level confidence: 59%. Notes
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