|
Menu
Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: BAWA A v Weston String Strokers (Wed 22 Nov 2017)Match played between Sean Adams (home) and Mark Bishop (away).Match won by Sean Adams. Result: 9-4,9-0,9-5. Starting level for Sean Adams: 2,670, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Mark Bishop: 799, level confidence: 39%. Sean Adams to win as he is currently playing 234% better than Mark Bishop. Sean Adams won all of the games and 75% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 76% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sean Adams played 76% better than Mark Bishop in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Sean Adams was taking it easy by anything up to 28%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,273 and 2,670 without affecting his level. In this case, Sean Adams played at level 1,644 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Sean Adams would normally have been playing at level 1,921 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Bishop played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.9% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sean Adams changes to 0% and Mark Bishop changes to +8.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sean Adams becomes 0% and for Mark Bishop becomes +5.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Sean Adams is 0% and for Mark Bishop is +4.4%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sean Adams: 90%, Mark Bishop: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sean Adams: 65%, Mark Bishop: 45%. A final adjustment of -6.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Sean Adams: 2,641, level confidence: 65%. Final level for Mark Bishop: 742, level confidence: 45%. Notes
|