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Login: | Explaining level changesPremier C: BAWA A v Redland Z (Wed 18 Oct 2017)Match played between Lyndon Hore (home) and Tim Hare (away).Match won by Lyndon Hore. Result: 9-0,9-0,9-1. Starting level for Lyndon Hore: 2,961, level confidence: 80%. Set manually. Starting level for Tim Hare: 1,649, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Lyndon Hore to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Tim Hare. Lyndon Hore won all of the games and 96% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 379% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lyndon Hore played 379% better than Tim Hare in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lyndon Hore actually played at a level of 4,836 and Tim Hare at a level of 1,010. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 63% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 44% and 44% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lyndon Hore changes to +39% and Tim Hare changes to -44%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lyndon Hore becomes +13% and for Tim Hare becomes -18%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Lyndon Hore is +9.8% and for Tim Hare is -13%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tim Hare is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lyndon Hore: 90%, Tim Hare: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lyndon Hore: 55%, Tim Hare: 52%. A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Lyndon Hore: 3,261, level confidence: 55%. Final level for Tim Hare: 1,588, level confidence: 52%. Notes
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