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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Westbury David Lloyd B v David Lloyd Battle Oats (Wed 08 Nov 2017)Match played between Richard Dodsworth (home) and Reggie Williams (away).Match won by Richard Dodsworth. Result: 9-0,9-2,9-2. Starting level for Richard Dodsworth: 2,915, level confidence: 77%. Set manually. Starting level for Reggie Williams: 1,712, level confidence: 78%. Set manually. Richard Dodsworth to win as he is currently playing 70% better than Reggie Williams. Richard Dodsworth won all of the games and 87% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 164% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Dodsworth played 164% better than Reggie Williams in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Dodsworth actually played at a level of 3,630 and Reggie Williams at a level of 1,375. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth changes to +18% and Reggie Williams changes to -18%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth becomes +7% and for Reggie Williams becomes -8.3%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Richard Dodsworth is +5.2% and for Reggie Williams is -6.1%. Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Reggie Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Dodsworth: 88%, Reggie Williams: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Dodsworth: 70%, Reggie Williams: 71%. A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Richard Dodsworth: 3,049, level confidence: 70%. Final level for Reggie Williams: 1,661, level confidence: 71%. Notes
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