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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Westbury David Lloyd B v Lansdown 2 (Wed 04 Oct 2017)Match played between Craig Phillips (home) and Murray Kenneth (away).Match won by Murray Kenneth. Result: 1-9,7-9,10-9,0-9. Starting level for Craig Phillips: 1,268, level confidence: 76%. Set manually. Starting level for Murray Kenneth: 2,516, level confidence: 33%. Murray Kenneth to win as he is currently playing 98% better than Craig Phillips. Murray Kenneth won 75% of the games and 67% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Murray Kenneth played 31% better than Craig Phillips in this match. Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Murray Kenneth was taking it easy by anything up to 12%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,883 and 2,516 without affecting his level. As Murray Kenneth has played below his allowed range at 1,771, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Murray Kenneth would normally have been playing at level 2,212 (based on typical behaviour), Craig Phillips played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 15%. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 10.6% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Murray Kenneth changes to -4.5% and Craig Phillips changes to +4.6%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Murray Kenneth becomes -2.7% and for Craig Phillips becomes +3.5%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Murray Kenneth is -2% and for Craig Phillips is +2.6%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Murray Kenneth: 58%, Craig Phillips: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Murray Kenneth: 47%, Craig Phillips: 71%. A final adjustment of -0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Craig Phillips: 1,301, level confidence: 71%. Final level for Murray Kenneth: 2,433, level confidence: 47%. Notes
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