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Login: | Explaining level changesDivision 1: Thornbury B v Lansdown 2 (Wed 22 Nov 2017)Match played between Mark 'On Your' Toseland (home) and Lee Jacobs (away).Match won by Mark 'On Your' Toseland. Result: 9-1,9-0,9-4:9-7,9-1,9-5:9-4,9-2,9-1:9-7,8-9,8-9,9-5,9-3:8-10,3-9,9-5,9-7,4-9. Starting level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 4,550, level confidence: 71%. Set manually. Starting level for Lee Jacobs: 2,242, level confidence: 74%. Set manually. Mark 'On Your' Toseland to win as he is currently playing 103% better than Lee Jacobs. Mark 'On Your' Toseland won all of the games and 84% of the points. This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more. This points result would be expected if he was better by around 134% (english scoring). These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mark 'On Your' Toseland played 134% better than Lee Jacobs in this match. Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mark 'On Your' Toseland actually played at a level of 4,886 and Lee Jacobs at a level of 2,088. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.4% to match this result. Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.1% and 5.1% respectively. Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland changes to +5.1% and Lee Jacobs changes to -4.9%. After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland becomes +2.4% and for Lee Jacobs becomes -2.9%. Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Mixed Autumn 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Mark 'On Your' Toseland is +1.8% and for Lee Jacobs is -2.2%. Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 84%, Lee Jacobs: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 78%, Lee Jacobs: 80%. A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools. Final level for Mark 'On Your' Toseland: 4,580, level confidence: 78%. Final level for Lee Jacobs: 2,193, level confidence: 80%. Notes
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